(ENG)The State of Quantum Computing: Between Promise and Peril

2024 was predicted to be a landmark year for quantum computing, a time when the technology would reach its peak and then face a slowdown.

 

The industry, while full of promise, also carries significant challenges and uncertainties.

 

Major players like IBM and Google have made impressive strides, but the road to commercial success may be tougher than anticipated. 

 

In this regard,

I introduce the program titled "The Quantum Computing Collapse Has Begun"  from Sabine Hossenfelder in October 2024.

Reference: Youtube channel "Sabine Hossenfelder"

Sabine Hossenfelder 발췌

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1. Prediction of Quantum Computing Hype:

The speaker predicted that 2024 would be the year when the quantum computing hype would peak and slow down. The field remains in a state of both promising and uncertain developments.

 

2. IBM's Quantum Computing Roadmap Shift:

In 2023, IBM introduced a quantum chip with over 1,000 qubits but provided limited details on its performance. The company has since revised its ambitious roadmap, pausing at 1,000 qubits for the coming years and focusing more on error correction.

 

3. Warning for Quantum Companies:

Quantum computing firms like D-Wave and Rigetti have been warned about delisting from the New York Stock Exchange due to significant stock declines.

 

4. PsiQuantum's Funding and Scrutiny:

PsiQuantum, using photon-based quantum technology, has raised nearly $1 billion, including significant funding from Australian taxpayers. This led to calls from Australian parliament members for an investigation into the use of public funds.

 

5. Progress in Error Correction by Google:

Google has shown significant progress in quantum error correction, demonstrating that adding more qubits can exponentially reduce errors. This finding benefits both Google and IBM, as they use similar superconducting qubit technology.

 

6. Challenges in Scaling Qubits:

While adding qubits can lead to redundancy and error-checking, it also introduces new errors, such as cross-talk and internal drift, which complicate the process of scaling quantum systems.

 

7. High Cost and Investment Risks:

The speaker estimates that building a commercial quantum computer could cost tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, which may be unsustainable for even large companies or governments.

 

8. Potential Collapse of the Field:

There is concern that if the cost of making quantum computing commercially viable remains extremely high, big companies might slow down investments, and startups could face difficulties raising funds, potentially leading to a collapse in the field.

 

9. Quantum Mechanics Course Promotion:

The speaker ends by promoting their quantum mechanics course on Brilliant.org, aimed at teaching concepts like wave functions, superposition, entanglement, and other related topics, with interactive visualizations and problem-solving exercises.

 

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Quantum computing remains at the forefront of technological innovation, supported by significant progress from leading companies such as IBM and Google.

 

However, the field is fraught with high costs, technical challenges, and investment uncertainties that could threaten its growth.

 

In this landscape, the future of quantum computing is as promising as it is precarious. Whether this technology will achieve successful commercialization remains to be seen, but its potential and possibilities continue to capture our attention.